The fact that Governor Andrew Cuomo must announce his state’s need for ventilators publicly in order to gain a solution to the rising shortfall of ventilators as the Covid-19 virus spreads is almost unbelievable. Also, that he has 400 on hand for a 30,000 estimate of need and we are learning publicly from Vice President Pence that 2,000 are on their way. It is hard to grasp the magnitude of the gap and what is happening.
This presents a problem that needs to be solved through the management of a number of key variables.
First, since NYC and the surrounding areas in New Jersey and Connecticut is now considered the epicenter of the pandemic, we need to begin with the projected number of cases over the next 7 to 14 days, the rate of hospitalization and the portion that will require ventilators. We now know that there is an inventory of 400 and 2,000 plus on the way, but how many of the 30,000 needed is actually required within that short period? This number defines the urgency and knowing how that 30,000 demand escalates over the near term may give some insight on how to fill the shortfall.
We are not hearing from Vice President Pence the total inventory of the country, the location of that inventory and the production rate and shipment of ventilators by manufacturers. This is fundamental information that should have already been gathered by any bright and savvy business person—particularly someone in supply chain. If it is being done, the press should ask who is doing it and what are the numbers?
For instance, we know that some states right now have a low incidence of the virus, so there is the possibility that they are in a surplus of ventilators. If those states and their hospitals and clinics were to send their ventilators in short order to meet the imminent threat being felt by NY, NJ and CT, they should be given the assurance by Washington that those ventilators would be replaced asap by the shipments coming from manufacturers who are now setting up additional production runs– such as those noted in this post on MassDevice.com.
Though the inventory and production rates are not posted for these manufacturers, if Washington pulls together a tight schedule from these manufacturers, they would then be in the best position to indicate which states should ship a portion of their ventilators to states having a rising deficit. Unfortunately, the wrench in the works of this possible solution is that White House team has not handled the crisis in a way to give confidence to those who are the position to help–so that if they help other states, they will have their state’s needs met in return.
This scenario of states supplying ventilators to other states only makes sense if someone has had the wherewithal to do the legwork and make the phone calls to the Governors who are probably are in the know. If there is no surplus in these low incidence states, then we must move directly and promptly to the manufacturers and learn their production and shipment rates. This is the critical information of this emergency—and it is not yet appearing in the public press as to whether it is being done. Transparency is sorely needed.
As Governor Cuomo stated, the coordination of the existing ventilator inventory and production schedules needs to be centralized for efficiency and accuracy, and it should be done at the Federal level and it should be shared publicly.
Again, the information needed to work out this schedule requires fundamental legwork that can be done by a group of dedicated bright and savvy individuals under direction of the White House. They should act with the urgency of the throes of war time, while not requiring much more than spreadsheets, a white board and some phones. The absence of leadership directing this crucial and fundamental organizational undertaking is so glaringly obvious in the White House briefings. It stymies top business people who know this is basic, it needs to be done and yet it is not.
We can only hope that the flattening of the curve occurs, defying what the analyses are indicating.
